Statistical Review and Gap Analysis of LNG Failure Rate Table

Overview

Main Objective

This project will strengthen industry consensus standards and safety related to liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants by implementing a Bayesian methodology to statistically review and analyze gaps in the data underlying and relevant to PHMSA's LNG Failure Rate Table, and then make recommendations regarding potential changes to the Table, the baseline threshold failure rate criterion, and future research to generate new data or analysis.

Public Abstract

The objective of this project is to strengthen safety and regulations related to liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants by analyzing data underlying and relevant to PHMSA's LNG Failure Rate Table, which defines expected failure frequencies of key LNG plant components. Results of the project will include specific recommendations to refine the LNG Failure Rate Data Table and the baseline threshold failure rate criterion of 5E-5 to 3E-5 failures per year, and the work will also identify key knowledge gaps and desirable follow-on research. The project team work in a collaborative manner with PHMSA and others. The project team will review relevant equipment failure data available globally, build an integrated database, and apply advanced and proven Bayesian network methodologies to analyze the data.

Summary and Conclusions

The project did not identify any direct basis to propose revising the current FRT criterion of 3E-5 and recommends retaining the 3E-5 criterion. The project recommends that FERC and PHMSA further consider whether methodologies other than the current FRT criterion methodology would be suitable for defining a Single Accidental Leakage Source (SALS) for impoundment areas serving only vaporization, process, and LNG transfer areas.

The project further recommends PHMSA and FERC consider funding research to conduct a new survey of LNG facilities in the US in order to update and expand upon the most recent survey study completed in 1981. The project also recommends PHMSA and FERC consider supporting the coordination of any new industry-government consortium efforts to create a national database of information related to in-service performance of LNG piping and components.

Relevant Files & Links