Risk Evaluation of Vehicle Strikes on Aboveground Pipeline Equipment and Facilities

Overview

Main Objective

The overarching goal of this project is to evaluate and mitigate the risks and consequences of motor vehicle collisions with aboveground pipeline infrastructure through integrated analysis of incident data, finite element analysis-based vehicle collision modeling, and stakeholder-informed protective strategies—ultimately producing validated, implementable guidance to enhance public safety and infrastructure resilience.

Anticipated Result: The anticipated results of this project include a suite of validated simulation tools for modeling vehicle-pipeline collisions, enabling the prediction of pipeline failure risks under a wide range of impact scenarios. The project will also produce risk factor models that identify the most significant contributors to both collision likelihood and consequence, leveraging U.S. and international incident databases. A comprehensive performance matrix comparing the effectiveness of protective strategies—including bollards, guardrails, coatings, sleeves, and setback distances—will be developed to support decision-making for both new pipeline designs and retrofit applications. Practical design guidance will be created, with draft standard language prepared in coordination with Standards Developing Organizations (SDOs) such as API, ASME, and NFPA, to facilitate adoption of the findings into industry practice. Additionally, the project will provide training opportunities for graduate students in computational modeling, risk analysis, and stakeholder engagement. Dissemination will occur through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, and the creation of a mechanical data and design code reference database, all contributing to improved infrastructure resilience and enhanced public safety.

Public Abstract

The proposed research aims to evaluate and mitigate the risks and consequences of motor vehicle collisions with aboveground pipeline infrastructure through an integrated approach that combines incident data analysis, mechanical modeling, stakeholder engagement, and protective strategy assessment. Although existing pipeline safety regulations and standards emphasize protection from excavation and corrosion, they offer limited guidance for vehicle impacts, despite over 200 documented PHMSA-reported collisions since 2010. These events, though infrequent, often lead to severe consequences, including product release, fire, injury, and death. Current incident databases and risk models group vehicle strikes under broad categories such as "outside force damage," limiting the ability to isolate risk factors or design targeted mitigation strategies.

This project addresses these gaps by: (1) conducting a comprehensive literature and standards review to synthesize mechanical behavior data and barrier performance relevant to vehicle-pipeline impact; (2) analyzing U.S. and international incident datasets using logistic regression and spatial mapping to identify key risk factors including road proximity, average daily traffic, posted speed limits, pipe properties, and 4 presence of protective systems; (3) developing and validating simplified and high-fidelity finite element models simulating vehicle collisions with pipelines, using LS-DYNA and calibrated against existing experimental impact tests; and (4) evaluating a range of protective countermeasures—including bollards, guardrails, sleeves, coatings, and setback distances—through simulation-based performance analysis.

The research will culminate in the development of a performance matrix and actionable design guidance for both new and existing facilities. Additionally, industry experts and Standards Developing Organizations (SDOs) will be engaged to ensure practical relevance and facilitate the translation of findings into revised standards and best practices. A PhD student will contribute to modeling, analysis, and dissemination efforts, helping develop future technical capacity in pipeline safety. Anticipated deliverables include open-source simulation tools, design recommendations, stakeholder summaries, and proposed language for codes and standards. Ultimately, the project will support PHMSA's core mission by providing evidence-based tools to reduce the frequency and severity of vehicle-related pipeline failures, improving infrastructure resilience and public safety.

Potential Impact on Safety: The anticipated results of this project are expected to significantly enhance public and infrastructure safety by reducing the likelihood and severity of motor vehicle collisions with aboveground pipeline components. By identifying the most critical risk factors and modeling high-consequence impact scenarios, the project will provide data-driven insights for prioritizing protective measures. Validated simulation tools will enable pipeline operators and designers to assess the vulnerability of existing infrastructure and proactively implement solutions such as barriers, sleeves, coatings, and optimized siting strategies. The resulting guidance and proposed updates to industry standards will help close current regulatory and design gaps, ensuring consistent, performance-based protection across jurisdictions. Ultimately, these outcomes will lower the probability of hazardous product release, reduce the potential for injury or fatality, and enhance the resilience of energy infrastructure in vehicle-accessible areas—all while maintaining public safety and compliance with federal safety regulations